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BNP Paribas looks forward to 2025: The Federal Reserve is expected to stay put for the whole year, and the US yield will rise. The 2025 outlook report released by BNP Paribas on Thursday shows that the yield of US Treasury bonds is expected to rise, and under the strong dollar, it will reach parity against the euro. The bank predicts that with the entry into force of the tariff measures proposed by the incoming Trump administration, the US inflation rate will start to pick up from the middle of next year, prompting the Fed to remain inactive throughout 2025. Calvin Tse, the bank's head of macro strategy for the Americas, said that customers are advised to continue to allocate low US Treasury bonds next year, because they expect that inflation will accelerate from mid-2025 after the soft landing of the economy, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds will be 4.65% at the end of the year. Tse also said that inflation is expected to be higher and the Fed is more hawkish next year.White House: Biden's approval of an aid program to Ukraine will provide more air defense systems, etc. On December 12, local time, John Kirby, strategic communication coordinator of the US White House National Security Council, said at the White House briefing that day that US President Biden approved a new Ukrainian security assistance program on the 12 th, which will provide Ukraine with more air defense systems, artillery, drones and armored vehicles. Kirby said that this is the 72nd such material deployment assistance announced by the United States, and the United States will continue to provide additional aid packages until the end of the current government.It is reported that the European Central Bank is considering cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in the next two meetings. According to informed sources, as the inflation rate stabilizes at the target of 2% and economic growth is sluggish, ECB officials plan to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in January, and there may be another one in March. People familiar with the matter said that as long as the economic development meets current expectations, gradually reducing the borrowing cost is the most appropriate path. They believe that cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at a time in an emergency is still an option, but this move may convey an unexpected sense of urgency. According to people familiar with the matter, officials have not yet made any decision, and every meeting will be evaluated based on all available information, even after March. They stressed that once the situation becomes clearer after Trump takes office in January, the policy inclination of the central bank may change.

It is reported that the European Central Bank is considering cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in the next two meetings. According to informed sources, as the inflation rate stabilizes at the target of 2% and economic growth is sluggish, ECB officials plan to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in January, and there may be another one in March. People familiar with the matter said that as long as the economic development meets current expectations, gradually reducing the borrowing cost is the most appropriate path. They believe that cutting interest rates by 50 basis points at a time in an emergency is still an option, but this move may convey an unexpected sense of urgency. According to people familiar with the matter, officials have not yet made any decision, and every meeting will be evaluated based on all available information, even after March. They stressed that once the situation becomes clearer after Trump takes office in January, the policy inclination of the central bank may change.Guterres: Syria's credible, orderly and inclusive transitional arrangements must be supported. On December 12, local time, UN Secretary-General Guterres issued a statement through a spokesman, expressing deep concern about the recent extensive violations of Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The statement specifically mentioned hundreds of air strikes by Israel against Syria, and said that there is an urgent need to alleviate violence in all aspects of Syria. Guterres said that the 1974 Disengagement of Forces Agreement is still valid, and he condemned all actions inconsistent with the Agreement and called on the parties to the Agreement to fulfill their obligations, including ending all unauthorized presence in the separation zone. The statement stressed that while maintaining public order, it is necessary to support Syria's credible, orderly and inclusive transitional arrangements.The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now at 43,983.32 points, down 165.24 points.

Reiterating that "stabilizing the property market" releases a stronger signal, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 11 to 12. In terms of real estate, the meeting called for "stabilizing the property market" and "continuously pushing the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize". Experts said that the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting held in September first mentioned "promoting the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize", the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting held in December made it clear that "stabilizing the property market", and the Central Economic Work Conference reiterated "stabilizing the property market" and emphasized "continuously pushing the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize", which reflected the firm attitude of promoting the real estate market. It is expected that the policy of "stabilizing the property market" in the next stage will continue to exert efforts, do a good job and promote new and greater results. (CSI)Market News: If Trump increases import duties on Canada, Canada will consider imposing export duties on uranium and oil.2 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds will be issued next week. According to China Bond Information Network, Beijing plans to issue the eleventh batch of government bonds in Beijing in 2024 by tender on December 18th. By then, the task of issuing 2 trillion yuan of local government refinancing special bonds to "replace the hidden debts in stock" will be completed during the year. At present, 29 provinces have disclosed the issuance arrangement of special refinancing special bonds, while Guangdong Province and Shanghai did not participate in this round of hidden debt swap. (Securities Times)